CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-09-14T15:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-09-14T15:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33434/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME seen to the southeast in SOHO C2/C3 and not yet observed in STEREO A due to a data gap. Associated with a powerful X4.5-class solar flare from AR3825 (S18E55) and subsequent strong eruption, characterized by intense brightening in SDO 131 and fast ejecta seen best in GOES 284 as well as a large, fast EUV wave associated with the eruption traversing back towards the northwest seen best in SDO 171/193 that covers approximately half the solar disk. The arrival of this CME is characterized by a significant increase in B_total from ~9nT to ~15nT, eventually reaching 20 nT by 2024-09-17T01:35Z with simultaneous increases in solar wind temperature, density, and velocity, which reached a peak sustained velocity of 560 km/s. By 2024-09-17T01:39Z, the magnetic field components begin to stabilize with time with steady -Bx and -Bz components dominate the signature until 2024-09-17T12:00Z. There is evidence of a clear flux rope signature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-09-16T22:49Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.67
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-09-17T09:30Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
:Issued: 2024 Sep 15 0951 UTC #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# An X4.5 flare was registered by GOES-18 as peaked at 14 Sep 15:29 UTC. This event has caused an increase of the greater than 10 MeV proton flux, although it is not expected to exceed the 10 pfu threshold level. A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) seen in LASCO C2/SOHO and COR2/STEREO-A images, is associated with the X4.5 flare. It is expected to become geo-effective at the first half of 17 Sep. More X-class flaring activity is possible in the next 24 hours. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # #Lead Time: 35.93 hour(s)
Difference: -10.68 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-09-15T10:53Z
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